anyway back in May to illustrate
how low risk of a buy that pullback was:
1. You had an ABC 3-wave pullback
2. that pullback was into the 61.8%
Fib
you had two important technical events
lining up at the same spot - again very low risk when you have
multiple things, NOT just one thing like a stock pattern or
trendline - a very good textbook pattern many times is good enough
for an objective low risk trade, but when you have other technical
factors confirming or lining up, makes it higher
probability
A VERY high probability trading system
would be buying abc pullbacks into the 61.8% Fib or 50 day or 200
day MA - however your only problem might be finding enough setups
to trade - if one could write a scan for those conditions maybe
more of those show up than we know of, if that's the only setups
you took, you would kick butt with very tight stops risk as
well
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging SA - Chart
Linkwas a nice trade from the trendline break back in early
June to the Feb highs. Been favoring a potential handle of a
cup and handle so been watching to buy this back that I sold in
late June at resistance.
could be a 3-wave abc here possibly
completing that, too early to say yet, but potential
yes I made my case about SPCX about it will be a while before
it's a good long term buy - probably well after the liquidity
increase - remember right now only 5% of the float is available,
starting in Aug that starts greatly increasing. Then you have
the 6 month lock up removal where all those insiders sitting on 30X
to 50X gains can take some damn profits. then Next year
Elon's restriction is fully lifted as well
I was simply taking about it bouncing here in the short term in
July as a trade, not as a long term position
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SPX 60 min
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 03:36 pm
_SPX e 60 min e - Chart Linkwondering if that's a micro ab needing a c to complete E?
Update: ETHE, Bitcoin
ETHE, Bitcoin
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 11:56 am
Bitcoin Coin Zoom out - Chart Linklooking good, come on bust through
IBIT - iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust Beneficial Interest - Chart Linkcould probably now move swing stops up to the higher low
ETHE Big coin - Chart Link
LABD make sure to take at least some initial profits
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 11:46 am
LABD 2hr - Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3x Shares - Chart Link
USO 2hr
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 11:46 am
USO 2hr - United States Oil Fund, LP - Chart Link
also remember earnings dates for
SMH keeps playing with that 50 day and hanging in ...
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 11:38 am
also remember earnings dates for trade ideas are generally listed in the trade ideas tables
https://breakpointtrades.com/watchlist/
also these days AI works pretty well when simply asking google or Gemini
SPCX
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 10:11 am
SPCX 60 min - Space Exploration Technologies Corp - Chart Link bounced up nearing that resistance area
BAC beat nicely today also educational post on that ABC pullback
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 10:08 am
BAC - Bank Of America Corp. - Chart Linkbeat earnings, big move. Banks are loving funding all the AI BS LOL
anyway back in May to illustrate how low risk of a buy that pullback was:
1. You had an ABC 3-wave pullback
2. that pullback was into the 61.8% Fib
you had two important technical events lining up at the same spot - again very low risk when you have multiple things, NOT just one thing like a stock pattern or trendline - a very good textbook pattern many times is good enough for an objective low risk trade, but when you have other technical factors confirming or lining up, makes it higher probability
A VERY high probability trading system would be buying abc pullbacks into the 61.8% Fib or 50 day or 200 day MA - however your only problem might be finding enough setups to trade - if one could write a scan for those conditions maybe more of those show up than we know of, if that's the only setups you took, you would kick butt with very tight stops risk as well
refiners been insane
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 09:54 am
MPC refiner energy - Chart Link
PSX daily energy - Phillips 66 refiner - Chart Link
AMBP abc of a handle? cup and handle
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 09:54 am
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging SA - Chart Linkwas a nice trade from the trendline break back in early June to the Feb highs. Been favoring a potential handle of a cup and handle so been watching to buy this back that I sold in late June at resistance.
could be a 3-wave abc here possibly completing that, too early to say yet, but potential
ANET today's lows perfect backtest of the coil trendline
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 09:51 am
ANET - Arista Networks, Inc. - Chart Link
GDX chart
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 09:50 am
GDX daily Candlestick - Chart Link
ETHE, Bitcoin
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 09:48 am
ETHE Big coin - Chart Link
Bitcoin Coin Zoom out - Chart Linkneeds to take out that symmetry resistance
CPI better than expected
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 08:34 am
US CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.5% (FORECAST 3.8%, PREVIOUS 4.2%)
US CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 2.6% (FORECAST 2.8%, PREVIOUS 2.9%)
US CPI MOM ACTUAL -0.4% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.5%)
US CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL 0% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
the market may like it as that helps lower expectations of a rate hike
yes I made my case
SPCX coming back down to it's IPO pricing ... this ...
Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2026 at 08:32 am
yes I made my case about SPCX about it will be a while before it's a good long term buy - probably well after the liquidity increase - remember right now only 5% of the float is available, starting in Aug that starts greatly increasing. Then you have the 6 month lock up removal where all those insiders sitting on 30X to 50X gains can take some damn profits. then Next year Elon's restriction is fully lifted as well
I was simply taking about it bouncing here in the short term in July as a trade, not as a long term position
ES futures
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2026 at 11:09 pm
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4WwrYwjU/
on the daily price stalled last week on the resistance cycle. 4 hr chart one demand zone is approaching. 2hr, were in in one now
tomorrow morning CPI important
Monday's Newsletter July 13th
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2026 at 06:23 pm
Monday's Newsletter
NOG really sweet move today 10%
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2026 at 06:04 pm
NOG energy - Chart Linktriggered last week, hope some folks bought last week
SLV chart
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2026 at 05:28 pm
SLV - iShares Silver Trust daily - Chart Linkwatch the SLV/GLD ratio
would love a flush down to that demand
Crude Oil weekly
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2026 at 05:18 pm
$Commodity Oil 4 Monthly WTIC linear - Chart Link perfect backtest of that wedge
SPCX
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2026 at 03:53 pm
SPCX 60 min - Space Exploration Technologies Corp - Chart Link