MDA SpaceRaising PT to $58; Maintaining OW

We raise our PT to $58 from $51 following 1Q26 results. Our PT of $58 is based on a ~3.9x EV/sales multiple and 2027 sales of ~$2bn. ~3.9x 2027 sales reflects a ~20% discount to the wider Space peer group (US-based), though space infrastructure players trade in the ~3-4x sales range. Our PT also implies a EBITDA multiple of ~20.5x on 2027E EBITDA of ~$385mn, a premium to US Defense Primes with significant Space portfolios. Our prior PT of $51 leveraged a ~3.2x multiple.

MDA is a Canada-based supplier for the global space industry, specializing in high-volume manufacturing of LEO satellites. The company benefits from increased spending in Space. A $3.7bn backlog provides important revenue visibility while a >$40bn pipeline presents notable growth opps. The stock trades at a discount to peers, and a bright catalyst path offers re-rating potential.

TRGP ChartMorgan top pick target $327; IBD Big Cap Leader 

Our Sum-of-Parts Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis results in segment 2027e EV/EBITDA multiples of: 11.4x for Gathering & Processing and 13.7x for Logistics & Transportation. Our unlevered DCF uses a Bloomberg adjusted beta of 0.96 and ERP of 4.25%.

Risks to Upside

• Strong, sustained natural gas production growth around Permian assets.
• High utilization on new projects as they are completed.
• Moderation in capital spending allows for FCF inflection and return of capital acceleration.

Risks to Downside

• Slowing producer activity in the Permian.
• Weak natural gas/NGL prices adversely impact cash flow on the margin.
• Capex remains elevated

Added a Jan 2027 call spread 

There is talk of trading compute futures.   The Bloomberg terminal I thnk even has a proposed ticker. 

Crypto to Compute looking strong CIFR +22;  GLXY +4;  WULF + 5 

Wild that UVIX made a 52 week low today 

the bottleneck stocks have been great

Defense/drone names have been hit hard, but the secular theme still looks intact: autonomous warfare, counter-drone systems, NATO rearmament, AI battlefield software, and reshoring away from Chinese supply chains.

$DRSHF – DroneShield
Counter-drone/electronic warfare leader with growing NATO & European contracts. Pure-play C-UAS exposure and one of the most direct beneficiaries of venue/critical infrastructure security demand.
PT: $2.50–3.50 base / $5+ bull

$KTOS – Kratos
Closest public “mini-Anduril” play: autonomous systems, hypersonics, loyal wingman drones, AI warfare stack. More diversified defense tech than pure drones.
PT: $45–55 base / $70+ bull

$AVAV – AeroVironment
Institutional-quality drone leader with proven battlefield systems and strong execution. Premium valuation but arguably best-in-class exposure to tactical UAV adoption.
PT: $180–220 base / $275+ bull

$ONDS – Ondas
Speculative but increasingly validated counter-UAS + autonomy platform (via Sentrycs). Key catalyst: announced deployments supporting 2026 FIFA World Cup venue security across North America — serving as real-world validation for large-scale counter-drone infrastructure. Also expanding into rail, critical infrastructure, and AI-enabled security systems.
PT: $4–7 base / $10–15 bull

$RCAT – Red Cat
High-beta U.S. military drone narrative with strong retail momentum and direct exposure to tactical battlefield UAV demand.
PT: $9–14 base / $20+ speculative bull

$UMAC – Unusual Machines
Picks-and-shovels drone supplier focused on NDAA-compliant motors/components as Western defense procurement shifts away from Chinese supply chains. Quiet but strategically important.
PT: $8–12 base / $18+ bull

$AMPX – Amprius
Advanced silicon battery play tied to drones, robotics, and autonomous systems. Second-derivative beneficiary if drone endurance and payload requirements scale materially.
PT: $5–8 base / $12–15 bull

Thansk for the post.  2026 Setup Looks Attractive - With Guide Out of the Way, Buy TOST Now. We see ample conservatism in 2026 guidance and see plenty of room for positive estimate revisions. In order to get down to guidance range we assume: 1) only a very modest increase in net new live locations vs. clear indication Toast will add more vs. the 30K added in 2025, 2) 3% SaaS ARPU growth, lower than recent trends suggesting mid-single digits is sustainable, 3) GPV per location down YoY, again, 4) take rates only ~1 bps higher, 5) only 20 bps of subscription GM % expansion, although subscription GMs have been expanding 200bps YoY, and 6) opex growth accelerating to 23% vs. 18% growth in 2025 – an unrealistic increase. All together, this creates a great setup for outperformance across the top and bottom line, and at ~14x P/E and a <0.50x PEG, current levels represent a great entry point for TOST.

I ended up adding a spec position RBLX Jan 21 '28 $50 Call

BTSG's topline rose 26%, above our estimates (+16%), led by Pharmacy Solutions (+25% vs. MSe +15%). Meanwhile, Provider Services rose 28% and was about in line with plan. Within Pharmacy, Infusion & Specialty sales (+35% vs. MSe +18%) drove the segment's growth, with weakness in Home & Community of -9% (MSe +3%). In Provider Services, all sub-segments contributed growth: Home Health (+49% vs. MSe +50%), Rehab Care (+7% vs. MSe +6%), and Personal Care (+4% vs. MSe +3%). From a profitability (EBITDA) perspective, the Provider segment grew +29% (vs. MSe +37%) while the Pharmacy EBITDA increased 46% (vs. MSe +25%). All in, the EBITDA margin of 5.3% expanded ~70 bps y/y, ahead of MSe by ~10 bps.

Interesting company l/t 

Roblox appears well positioned as the company is not just a creation platform but also a distribution layer connected to a large, active creator and player ecosystem. That matters because even as AI lowers certain barriers to creation, Roblox retains several incumbent advantages that should be difficult to replicate quickly. This includes workflows with embedded AI, creator network effects, existing monetization infrastructure, and a large amount of proprietary interaction data. Those advantages should become more valuable if AI expands the volume of content being created, as Roblox is in a position to help creators build more efficiently and provide them with a scaled platform to reach, engage, and monetize users. Roblox appears positioned to benefit not just from AI-enabled creation, but from the way AI may reinforce the value of existing ecosystems, data moats, and integrated toolchains over time. That being said, it is crucial that Roblox establishes itself as the platform new creators use to build, distribute, and monetize new game experiences.

USAR + 18;   UUUU +10; UAMY +20; MP + 7

Areospace has looked terrible 

GEV is moving into SOFC

As of early 2026, GEV has shifted its SOFC strategy from long-term R&D to an immediate commercial play aimed at the data center market.

• Commercialization Timeline:GEV targets full commercialization of its SOFC technology within one to two years(by late 2026–2027), with large-scale industrialization following in two to three years.
• Manufacturing Edge:GEV is leveraging its proprietary "thermal spray technology"to manufacture ceramic electrolytes at a larger physical scale and lower cost than current industry standards. This is a direct attempt to undercut Bloom Energy's established cost structures.
• Backlog & Growth:While Bloom Energy is currently the "fuel cell king" with a $20 billion backlogand massive contracts like the 2.8 GW deal with Oracle, GEV has an overall power equipment backlog projected to hit $200 billion by 2027.  

"But while the bubble narrative gained momentum, reality has moved the other way. And the evidence now points not just to a boom, but to something the bears haven’t considered: scarcity. The real risk isn’t that we’ve invested too much in AI. It’s that we haven’t invested nearly enough."  https://substack.com/home/post/p-187655696

"The Iran war is sending fertilizer prices through the roof: Urea prices have surged ~+80% to +100% year-to-date across all major benchmarks. Urea is a nitrogen-based fertilizer that must be applied every season and directly affects crop yields and quality.This comes as the Iran war has brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill, cutting off ~33% of globally traded urea volumes typically exported from the Gulf. This is because the Middle East represents a massive ~45% of global urea trade, supplying major agricultural importers including India, Europe, and Brazil.India, the world's largest rice producer, recently booked record volumes of urea in a single import tender, paying nearly twice the price it did just 2 months ago.Meanwhile, Western Australia already expects wheat planting area to fall -14% as farmers shift away from fertilizer-intensive crops.Expect global food prices to rise further." 

• CF — Best pure-play nitrogen/urea winner. Biggest leverage to fertilizer spike.

• NTR — Safer diversified ag giant with fertilizer + retail exposure.

• MOS — Potash/phosphate play that could catch up as fertilizer inflation spreads.

• LXU — Small-cap high-beta nitrogen squeeze candidate.

• UAN — Income-heavy nitrogen MLP with massive payout potential in boom cycles.

• TNH — Thin-float fertilizer rocket if nitrogen prices stay extreme.

• YARIY — Global fertilizer heavyweight benefiting from worldwide nitrogen shortages.

• ADM / BG — Secondary food inflation and grain trade beneficiaries.

Sold some on the open.  Just a beast 

Impressive move from another one of the bottleneck stocks.  Morgan bull case $1350 

Wild stat from BBG:  “One of the most powerful rallies since World War II”  Stocks took just 11 days to spike from oversold to overbought.  This was the second fastest rally in history, only surpassed by August 1982.