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SPX dumping after hours

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 04:11 pm

SPX dumping after hours

VIX dumping hard but coming

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 01:22 pm

VIX dumping hard but coming into support

VIX suggesting the double bottom

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 01:13 pm

VIX suggesting the double bottom on the SPX 3 minute might hold?

Oops...you beat me to it.

SPX 10 min

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 12:04 pm

Oops...you beat me to it. Sorry

SPX 15 min - approaching

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 12:03 pm

SPX 15 min - approaching the bottom of the channel

SPX short - Added a

Posted by jtsurfah on 27th of May 2022 at 01:19 pm

SPX short - Added a second batch  just now (using  XSP....same same but smaller scale).. 1st time was when 16 delta July calls matched the 61.8 fib. Today I added when 16 delta July calls matched the 78.6 fib.

19 PE is suspect also considering they lost money on the quarter. But I just take the numbers on my platform for granted until I get really serious about a company. In that case,  I would dig in and figure out the real valuation. 

Buy back is nice (don't say it too loud and risk attracting Liz Warrens ire), but I kind of picture them saying it with a pinkie to their lips, Dr. Evil style. I have them at an almost 19 PE (18.8), which is still nose bleed territory for retailers, historically speaking. 

Beat on the top line. Shocker. Inflation spikes prices so top line expands even with flat unit sales.  Suspect. 

Matt or Steve will probably

VIX Updated Views

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 04:47 pm

Matt or Steve will probably discuss it tonight but I think Matt was describing a possible divergence which would potentially result in a positive move for SPX and a negative move for the VIX. Sounds like he was referring to a daily time frame. 

Wow. Kind of huge on

TSLA out of S&P 500

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:51 pm

Wow. Kind of huge on a couple levels....but for now with TSLA at a 96 PE and AAPL at a 23 PE, I don't see valuation support for the broader market. 

"not budging" means staying in

VIX Updated Views

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:36 pm

"not budging" means staying in short term strong uptrend? Trying to square this with VVIX signal above 110  that Matt pointed out. VIX looks like it's filling an open gap to me, but the VVIX signal is concerning (but I don't know the mechanics of the VVIX indicator all that well)

TSLA - anyone else seeing

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 12:09 pm

TSLA - anyone else seeing an objective short on the 30 min chart? I was so mad when they put this in the S&P. Big fan but the valuation is/was nonsense. With its size in a cap weighted index, is it possible it doesn't take down the index if it goes down? (my target is 505 ish)

PTON - I still have

PTON weekly

Posted by jtsurfah on 10th of May 2022 at 11:17 am

PTON - I still have people asking me to buy this one for them.  I  have declined since day 1, and had no regrets even when it was going up every day, but fans will be fans.. 

Anyone selling upside calls on

Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of May 2022 at 01:31 pm

Anyone selling upside calls on SPY, SPX, XSP, etc?  What strikes are you selling?I typically like to sell 45 days to expiration, 16 delta (or less...but it's tough here because the fibs set up to touch those levels on a decent bounce.  

Morton7 speaking for the rich guys. He's fired     

Is there an ETF for commodities exposure in foreign currency terms? 

Commodities slightly positive today with

Posted by jtsurfah on 5th of May 2022 at 12:46 pm

Commodities slightly positive today with the USD impact stripped out (PDBC or DBC vs UUP)

Bonds are too.  I was looking a friends 401K options last week and was surprised to find that the "stable value" fund in his list of options was returning around 2%. That's not "stable" in a 8% inflationary world, but it's better than losing capital (on top of debasing what you have left). 

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