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law - keep in mind that the BA manufacturing cuts are having a neg impact on ISM recovery and there was a GM Strike. numbers are neg skewed. 

Agreed, Any pause will be temporary..Historically Year 4 of the 1st term is positive through the first 9mths of the year. The next presidential term will inherit all the problems imho.

Posted by jdaswani on 3rd of Jan 2020 at 12:30 pm

ISM skewed... Includes BA 737 manufacturing & GM China deal benefits price in 2020..I think mrkt run is beyond stretched, but I think its still too soon... You dont get a major selloff with positive monthly macd's on the indexes.. Russell just crossed positive in Jan 1

Nothing really changed..We had an external shock which has limited impacts on US Business interests..Does it raise uncertainty?  Yes. If you go back the past 2years, every gap down at open was bought (tradwar/Brexit/Fill in the blank) the trade has always been higher from open. Now if you short it at the close, after the recovery bounce, the success is higher on the short side. 

works for me..can take rest of the year off :-)

Dennis Gartman shutting down newsletter

Posted by jdaswani on 9th of Dec 2019 at 10:19 am

Dennis Gartman shutting down newsletter after 30 years

Listen to newsletter, he is

Weekend Newsletter

Posted by jdaswani on 9th of Dec 2019 at 08:30 am

Listen to newsletter, he is clear...ES closed, Spy Open

First thing I did. with very limited success. 

Matt/Steve, Do you have a

Posted by jdaswani on 3rd of Dec 2019 at 12:53 pm

Matt/Steve, Do you have a list of International Market ETFs. I know at one point it used to be listed on the site. Just looking for a comprehensive list of etf's 

Interactive Brokers Hard to Borrow

SPY is hard to borrow - SCARY

Monthly charts bullish MACD - Could be a nice year end rally coming

Netflix beats by $0.04, reports

Posted by jdaswani on 16th of Oct 2019 at 04:33 pm

Netflix beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line with U.S. subs below guidance and international subs slightly above; guides Q4 subs, EPS and revs below consensus  (286.28 +2.03)

  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.09 per share, $0.04 better thanthe S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.05; revenues rose 31.2% year/year to $5.25 bln vs the $5.25 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. 
  • Total paid net adds of 6.8m increased 12% year over year and was an all-time Q3 record. Operating margin of 18.7% (up 670 bps year over year) was above guidance due to timing of content and marketing spend, which will be more weighted to Q4'19.
  • In the US, paid net adds totaled 0.5m in Q3 vs. our 0.8m forecast, and year to date paid net adds are 2.1m vs. 4.1m in the first nine months of 2018. Since our US price increase earlier this year, retention has not yet fully returned on a sustained basis to pre-price-change levels, which has led to slower US membership growth. revenue growth has been accelerating as US ARPU increased 16.5% year over year in Q3.
  • International paid net additions totaled 6.3m in Q3, a 23% increase vs. 5.1m in the year ago quarter, and slightly above our 6.2m guidance forecast. The US dollar strengthened vs. several key currencies over the course of the quarter, which resulted in the variance between our forecasted vs. actual international revenue. International ARPU, excluding the impact of F/X, rose 10% year over year. We're making strides in our key markets and, while we have much more work to do in Asia in the coming years, we are seeing encouraging signs of progress.
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.51 vs. $0.85 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $5.442 bln vs. $5.51 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
  • For Q4, we're expecting consolidated revenue to increase 30% year over year with 9% streaming ARPU growth. We're forecasting 7.6m global paid net adds (vs. 9.5 mln estimates and 8.8m last Q4), with 0.6m in the US and 7.0m for the international segment. This implies full year 2019 paid net adds of 26.7m, down from 28.6m last year. While we had previously expected 2019 paid net adds to be up year over year, our current forecast reflects several factors including less precision in our ability to forecast the impact of our Q4 content slate, which consists of several new big IP launches (as opposed to returning seasons), the minor elevated churn in response to some price changes, and new forthcoming competition.
  • Our long term outlook on our business is unchanged. We're on track to achieve our full year 2019 operating margin goal of 13%. In 2020, we'll be targeting another 300 basis points in operating margin expansion, consistent with the annual margin improvement we've delivered each year since 2017.
  • Competition: There may be some modest headwind to our near-term growth, and we have tried to factor that into our guidance. In the long-term, though, we expect we'll continue to grow nicely given the strength of our service and the large market opportunity.
  • For the full year 2019, we're still expecting FCF of ~-$3.5 billion. With our quickly growing revenue base and expanding operating margins, we will be able to fund more of our content spending internally. As a result, we're expecting free cash flow to improve in 2020 vs. 2019 and we expect to continue to improve annually beyond 2020.
  • Starting with our Q4'19 earnings report in January 2020, we plan to disclose revenue and membership by region

lowered Subscriber growth for Q4..

Posted by jdaswani on 16th of Oct 2019 at 04:31 pm

lowered Subscriber growth for Q4.. Beat on Q3

stockcharts down?

Posted by jdaswani on 7th of Oct 2019 at 09:54 am

stockcharts down?

Starting to look like a

Posted by jdaswani on 30th of Sep 2019 at 03:29 pm

Starting to look like a false break..lets see

Headline misleading...I saw same one as you Steve..But if you open article it says will be fully online by end Sept

Perhaps state the obvious..Aramco is going public....higher Oil  prices raises the valuation of the deal..just saying

Blackberry fundamental write up

BB Daily View

Posted by jdaswani on 5th of Sep 2019 at 02:40 pm

Blackberry fundamental write up


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