3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Put call at 1.16 ..has room to run but is slowed over past hour
at the 61.8.
Inflection point eh Steve ? :) New target 2840 then final
bounce attempt before reality check.
GLD was certainly the Canary... i loaded up on SPXU on the GLD
spike. Question now is will this be a trend and see another
800 pt drop ? Matt/Steve - Down side target ?
Is SPXU a 1x or 3x ?
Picked up some on your earlier post. Stop at 2.65 ?
Taking 1st BA short position now.
Put/Call ratio has been steadily declining since last week's
sell off meaning sentiment continues to grow positive.
Getting a chart of the ratio vs. market moves over time would
be interesting. Love this page->
http://www.cboe.com/data/current-market-statisticsto see which
way the wind is blowing. More important however (since winds
can change fast) is when the readings go too far in either
direction as BPT has taught me. That is really the name of
the game where your risk/reward ratio is 20/80 and you go balls
out. This requires patience vs. taking every dam thing that
looks juicy. BtW I think BYND looks prime for a HUGE
correction on a 1 yr time frame. So much competition brewing
that the valuation is absurd. I'm thinking 100 easy peasy.
Waiting for it to get back to 180 (if it get's there soon)
and then gonna short it on a leap.
As I watch the futures move up .. this buyback window is
interesting. I'm thinking most companies will not wait to buy
back and will buy on any weakness which supports the bounce theory
to get up to my 2970 target. My Target for this week is 2945
to keep everyone guessing . 'THEY' have to get sentiment
positive so GLD can correct. I'm starting to 2nd guess my
timing in that we'll get to 2970 in 7 more trading days although
it's possible. I'm long 8/30 on SPY & QQQs and more
short 9/13 on same so if we roll over and tank this week i'm not
worried. Opposite on GLD. It may take longer than the 2
mtgs this week to power the bulls (doubt it but has me on
edge as news everywhere is counting their chickens today i.e.
Powell WILL be a super Dove). Once in a while the news is actually
correct (it's the double head fake contrarian view). Got into
DBA today and plan to get into more with the tight stop tomorrow...
this is going to trigger. THEY always want to keep you
guessing so there is no easy money...need to stick to your
guns(stops). If somehow, someway I'm completely wrong and
we don't get a Q3 correction I will bet big on a Q4
correction... I really don't think it's going that far but may need
to extend my trade out another 4 weeks. It's so hard calling
tops and bottoms. Market rally and Gold tank remain my most
likely view in next 30-60 days, if target is hit, flip the script.
Matt and Steve - you guys rock ! Hope restoration is
progressing well Matt and Steve is enjoying the best part of life
(family) Cheers !
Thanks Matt - DBA looks juicy, hoping to hop on tomorrow !
Exited my GDXJ puts today but I'm with ya, let's get to that
higher low while market rallys and GLD tanks. Picked up some
DCIX to hold on to. Turn around Tuesday should provide good
short term long ops into BS mtgs later this week. My long
target remains 2970 on the S&P and once (and if) we clear
resistance on Wednesday prolly. If we do I'd like to
see how's Steve's bear wedge looks. The W on the indexes is a
perfect trap to make us think we're gonna go to new market highs in
short order - gonna take it one day at a time Steve and see if we
can clear 2970 with momentum - don't see it happening but let's
As I watch the futures move up I can't help ... Matt/Steve
- DO NOT READ THIS POST. haha-really don't read past next
sentence. Point is I'd love for you to keep doing what you do
best technical analysis on the planet) without
in any way by my post. My analysis is deep and
logical (See Original Post) . All logical signals say we
should go higher and let metals sink (but not DBA ??). I'm
curious to know if anyone thinks DBA/Ags can rally here (2
week time frame) ? Market has us at the zero line technical
analysis wise but also has us on our toes from a bad news
position... Contrarian view is the market must rally(Let's
get the SPY system closed). Let's get back to 2970.
Turn around Tuesday makes perfect sense especially with a
push higher Monday followed by fear of what will they say Wednesday
(continued elevated VIX and GLD). What do u think Powell will
say ? He will signal I'll bend over backwards and do what is
necessary (= Rally On)... Then maybe we'll cool down (I'm always
ahead of the program it seems). Then and if we rally ..
along comes the 9/1 Tariff and Trump says 25 vs 10% - what happens
(see Steve's Trump Signals cycle chart) -er we tank? Then we
close out perhaps one of the worst Septembers ever (Where are my
emojis !) . . Followed by rate cut crack when Fed is
forced to cut big (or some new rules that'll never happen in time)
... leads to a big year end and longer rally which Trump Dog needs
to be re-elected. Once he's elected many may think he's
trying to leave a legacy for his kids to come into power but I
think irrespective we ARE headed into a recession and i'm
looking forward to Trump's explanation for how this is not a
recession. Also easy to manipulate (another tax cut too?)
rally irrespective of Fed. I treasure the boys, this site,
and would love to hear BPT community feedback (including 'this is a
techanical analysis site so STFU with your Deep logic!').
Let's unite on rally to 2970 and all make a shit pile of
money! or we could just drop through the floor in
the morning... but that's a whole another post (not). -
The fix is in. Hopefully no bad news on Sunday and this BS
rally continues next week and with any luck GLD and SLV tank
so we can buy some.
mmmm hmmm ...
As i watch the futures move up I can't help but connect the
dots. Steve's big wedge looks like the plan. Market
could continue a jittery bounce here all the way up to the top of
the wedge's trendline which almost coincides with a triple top and
might take a week or two to play out and would likely flip some
indicators. Meanwhile precious metals would sink (cycle on
longer terms). Then we tank through the floor HARD with some
Tarrif news (like 25% instead of 10%...that should be enough) and
metals get back into business making new highs. If this
plays out, Christmas will be coming early ! Wishful thinking,
Matt - Thanks for doing the newsletter ! Sorry about the
catastrophe. Curious why insurance didn't cover it -
considered it flood ?
Those underside MA touches are $$$.
Great day! Plan to stay short Roku down to the 9 and think
SHOP needs a leg down. The high fliers are still too high in
the face of doom and gloom (until of course when the Fed comes to
save the day...Trump already started tweeting). Looking
forward to tonight's newsletter. Matt - Would love to see where we
now from that ominous Elliot Wave? chart you posted over the
weekend (like overlaying that on the S&P on the time period
that matches closest). I'm thinking further downside
before the end of the week but anything is possible with the full
moon. CSCO just wet the bed and NVDA is up to bat next.
Full moon tomorrow morning....js
FMC short is working out.
Unfortunately got stopped out yesterday. Not getting back
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