Matt, is HYG Daily in a possible bearish wedge? Or is there another pattern here....in line with what you mentioned in the newsletter last night as a potential bullish resolution?

Great call Matt on saying that we would/should expect Wave B up. So far, this seems to be it. Also with the RTM Systems. 

Easy to get Uber Bearish when we see sharp moves down. Usually, the contrarian view plays out so great calls

....reaching support on the 2hour. Like a thinner and thinner ice sheet. Sooner or later, it will break. For now, I will trail down with stops.

cancelled air strikes etc. I won't go into Politics but lets just say de ja vue. reminds me. Dinner time....might have a taco

So it is difficult to know what investors will do after the allocation is scaled-back. 1) Some may reinvest into other stocks; 2) Some may have a large cash balance and decided that even though they wanted just a few shares, they applied for more suspecting a scale-back.....so the excess cash that isn't converted to shares will be credited back to them. Really difficult to tell but on this side of the pond, when we had big IPOs, I would use excess available cash to apply for more shares than I truly want, with the suspicion of scale back. The cash not converted to shares, would be returned back to me post IPO.

I think we are in a pretty well defined downward channel here. I see resistance now as being 7400 at the sloping downward line and the 50day. I am trailing down shorts in line with this

It could be yes. Institutions don't want to see this IPO fail. I think the shares float at $135 on Friday but pre-live trading were as high as $180 and now ~$150. Don't quote me on this because a dealing desk buddie told me!

...Around 7320-7370 on the chart below. Demand zone as well as rising support. A logical place for a bounce. Then again, a very impulsive decline today. Greater than my impulsive chocolate buying at the Grocery Store.  Will be interesting to see what happens in the zone I mark

Yep agreed. I see no divergence yet on Wheat so wouldn't go long until this happens. Surprised the pullback has been so deep in Wheat but you gotta read the tape and it looks bearish.....until it isn't! Trend firmly down

You are welcome. I think for all of these commodities, it is awfuly tempting given that price has fallen alot. However, the macro PDBC ETF hasn't formed the C Wave down and therefore, I think if the S&P sells off, there will be some "mini-liquidation" out of these commodities as well

One of Matts Macro plays. Again, this has room to work lower towards the 200day in my opinion. It has had an almighty fall in the past few weeks

I will look to buy when we see a bit of MACD Divergence, some better price action and support at the 200day

https://schrts.co/XzdVViwh 

...and a breakout imminent in Sugar. Still 3 favourable headwinds. 1) Technicals and well below inflation par performance over past 5 years; 2) Super El Nino; 3) CANE being used for Ethanol. I am waiting for a slight pullback (Probably in line with PDBC which still needs to form its C Wave). Then going long for an upside breakout. However, stops are just below the coil bottom

USO. Any views on USO here? Seeing it as a potential snap back rally given yesterdays hammer candle? Stop at the low of the candle possibly?

Prior hammers in April and May near the bottom of the BBs also seemed good long opportunities for a snapback

Ok thanks for the info. Will contact Wall Street and see if they can do a Trading Places for me and turn those machines back on. 

https://youtu.be/WPZn4rbiB8g?si=gTJj0glGOe56ekEy 

wow long post! Reminds me of the shopping list my girlfriend sends me on whatsapp. Never ending.   

Yes I agree it is cheap on a fundamental basis. I think 8 - 10x PE? My logic is it is based on record high NAND pricing. If AI Spending slows or margin pressure rises, then there is room for the forward PE to be revised upwards....and therefore share price downwards. A small position I have and will see how it unfolds. 

But I don't want to marry the short. If Daily becomes oversold with some divergence, I will bail out. Then again, yes it could double from here so one of my riskier short trades. So putting aside the fundamentals and/or risks, the current daily pattern looks like a bearish triangle is forming. 

You could argue it has already fallen $200 from its peak. On the flip side, it has gone up from $300 this year to $1370 now

Pattern should break down I think so taking a (small) shot at shorting here

Naturally pullback on Friday and probably into next week. Interesting chart here though that compared to prior bubbles, we may have more room to the upside. 

% of stocks up over 100% in the past year compared to prior peaks. Normal saying...Markets can remain irrational longer than a trader can stay solvent. 

Great chart. Breakout imminent. Aligns with what I posted earlier that the underlying commodity looked bullish for a break upwards. Oil potentially heading back towards $110-$115 which should be naturally good for all of these stocks...... as well as Sugar (Ethanol play)

I was just looking at the exact chart and drawing the same lines! Aggs do have the extra dimension of weather and the latest expectation is that El Nino will be more severe than anticipated. https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1402693-super-el-nino-2026-why-forecasters-say-its-just-around-the-corner

I think places like India are now limiting Sugar Exports or even prohibiting. To conserve stocks.