SPX/SPY is getting quite compressed (steep wedge) and there is
some divergence now on 60 minute chart but we have yet to see a
break in structure (still lower highs). Also, noteworthy is
the SPX daily RSI is now in an oversold region which rarely fails
to provide some type of bounce. Also have 5 days down (could
extend but odds favoring a bounce soon just need a trigger).
OPEX tomorrow.
sent emails out earlier for updated KISS tables, I can see
everyone's favorites, this AlPN caught my eye, the KISS system went
long on Dec 4th, and the trade is up 304% LOL
guys try not to guess things - yes sometimes and no others like
I've explained there are 3 major entry rules for longs. One of
those entries tends to only occur after a nice move off the lows
where price could be a little extended
the two other moves, the ABC long can trigger 2 or 3 candles off
a low, very tight. The oversold washout trade can occur just
1 or 2 candles of the low
the trade idea trigger Steve showed was based off the high of
the doji candle, that would be a trade you could have done with
that doji as a trigger, but it had nothing do do with KISS system -
your trade would have been based off that doji setup
ictguy- please send me the question to my private message,
copy the text and click that mail box icon, that's a question for
after hrs, or maybe you we need a zoom call or phone call to answer
some of your questions
that said, the systems; The KISS systems and the mean reversion
systems are their own animals with their own rules for entering and
exiting trades, they are mutually exclusive to any subjective trade
ideas we may put out. We are not generally putting out trade ideas
based on the systems
The CLSK trade ideas was simply based off the chart, had nothing
to do with KISS system which was been in cash
that said the CCI divergence shows a possible entry today, the
stats are very good, profit factor of 63.3, 95.65% winning trades,
excellent profit curve
average time in trades is about 4 days for the average and for
winners, for losers it's 11 days but there have only be 3 losing
trades
$SPX - Chart Link- again don't get bogged down
with wave counts , but to me still likes like it's in that 3 wave,
that bounce wasn't very big, could have been that 4, but this could
also still just be 3.
fill the gap, then OPEX then maybe we get a bounce
yeah not sure I have any conviction here either, it's sitting
just above the 50 day MA major support where it could pop up for a
5th wave, however the 9 and 20 MA's have flattened out which means
it's also more vulnerable to a breakdown instead -
basically the stock is at a breakpoint where it's either gonna bust
down or pop up. Yeah I know I'm saying it could do this or
that, but what I'm stressing is that it's at a critical junction
for a big move, and seems like could go either way here
HUT - Chart Linkone of you went long that a
couple days ago off support.
to me entering the trade is always much easier than exiting, the
exit is always the toughest part - you have to decide if you exit
it now or soon for a trade locking in gains, a lot of major MA's
overhead that could offer resistance could be a place to scale out,
or if you just place a stop and hold, or a combination of the two
where you lock in some gains, then place a swing stop on the
remaining after having sold 1/2
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SPX/SPY is getting quite compressed
CCI Divergence may trigger long on ES futures for mean reversion
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2024 at 05:58 pm
SPX/SPY is getting quite compressed (steep wedge) and there is some divergence now on 60 minute chart but we have yet to see a break in structure (still lower highs). Also, noteworthy is the SPX daily RSI is now in an oversold region which rarely fails to provide some type of bounce. Also have 5 days down (could extend but odds favoring a bounce soon just need a trigger). OPEX tomorrow.
ALPN from KISS tables
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 04:41 pm
sent emails out earlier for updated KISS tables, I can see everyone's favorites, this AlPN caught my eye, the KISS system went long on Dec 4th, and the trade is up 304% LOL
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=alpn
the thing is, looks like it got bought out or something with that big recent gap up, I'd just sell it
it's a new long CCI
CCI Divergence may trigger long on ES futures for mean reversion
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 04:38 pm
it's a new long CCI for MES, not SPY
Update: XBI
XBI
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 04:13 pm
XBI - Chart Link- getting close to that 200 day MA
_IWM - Chart Link- a lot of biotechs in the Russell 2000, IWM is also approaching its 200 day MA and in the middle of that demand zone
powerhouse
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 03:48 pm
DBA - Chart Link-
DBA - Chart Link-
KOLD
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 03:45 pm
KOLD - Chart Link-
CCI system for ES still
CCI Divergence may trigger long on ES futures for mean reversion
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 03:43 pm
CCI system for ES still has conditions, of course that bar doesn't close until 5 pm EST
SPX 120 with Gap
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:34 pm
$SPX - Chart Link - like to see them go for that gap
Homebuiders (TOL, KBH) downsizing
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:33 pm
guys try not to guess
CLSK Views
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:53 pm
guys try not to guess things - yes sometimes and no others like I've explained there are 3 major entry rules for longs. One of those entries tends to only occur after a nice move off the lows where price could be a little extended
the two other moves, the ABC long can trigger 2 or 3 candles off a low, very tight. The oversold washout trade can occur just 1 or 2 candles of the low
basically KISS got out of
CLSK Views
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:51 pm
basically KISS got out of CLSK over a week ago
the trade idea trigger Steve showed was based off the high of the doji candle, that would be a trade you could have done with that doji as a trigger, but it had nothing do do with KISS system - your trade would have been based off that doji setup
ictguy- please send me the
CLSK Views
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:47 pm
ictguy- please send me the question to my private message, copy the text and click that mail box icon, that's a question for after hrs, or maybe you we need a zoom call or phone call to answer some of your questions
that said, the systems; The KISS systems and the mean reversion systems are their own animals with their own rules for entering and exiting trades, they are mutually exclusive to any subjective trade ideas we may put out. We are not generally putting out trade ideas based on the systems
The CLSK trade ideas was simply based off the chart, had nothing to do with KISS system which was been in cash
CCI Divergence may trigger long on ES futures for mean reversion
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:38 pm
yeah I know, not fun when these are scaling in
that said the CCI divergence shows a possible entry today, the stats are very good, profit factor of 63.3, 95.65% winning trades, excellent profit curve
average time in trades is about 4 days for the average and for winners, for losers it's 11 days but there have only be 3 losing trades
price tagged and bounced off
Do we bounce off 5052 ES..
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:33 pm
price tagged and bounced off that major TICK pivot at 5006 that was generated on Feb 15th
the thicker dotted line means that the TICK spiked to a very high level then, not just over 1000, but over 1300
SPX 120 and 60 min
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:29 pm
$SPX - Chart Link-
$SPX - Chart Link- like I said, targeting that gap fill
$SPX - Chart Link- again don't get bogged down with wave counts , but to me still likes like it's in that 3 wave, that bounce wasn't very big, could have been that 4, but this could also still just be 3.
fill the gap, then OPEX then maybe we get a bounce
yeah but the bounce I'm
Sure looks like Matts update for a bounce and then ...
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:26 pm
yeah but the bounce I'm referring to is one that lasts 2 or 3 days forming at least a lower high wave b. For now this just the same wave down.
I did stress that there wasn't any good divergences on 60 min time frames, meaning not a good bottom.
another low here could set up some MACD divergence
OPEX is on Friday, amd price is in the middle of that big gap, might as well just fill it now at 4980
yeah not sure I have
NFLX pricing in a massive earnings move today. I don't ...
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 01:21 pm
yeah not sure I have any conviction here either, it's sitting just above the 50 day MA major support where it could pop up for a 5th wave, however the 9 and 20 MA's have flattened out which means it's also more vulnerable to a breakdown instead - basically the stock is at a breakpoint where it's either gonna bust down or pop up. Yeah I know I'm saying it could do this or that, but what I'm stressing is that it's at a critical junction for a big move, and seems like could go either way here
SPX, QQQ 15 min
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 12:54 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- that looks like a simple abc zig zag
QQQ - Chart Link-
XBI
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 12:51 pm
XBI - Chart Link- shows a couple of demand zones below, and of course that 200 day MA
your HUT is doing well
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 12:37 pm
HUT - Chart Linkone of you went long that a couple days ago off support.
to me entering the trade is always much easier than exiting, the exit is always the toughest part - you have to decide if you exit it now or soon for a trade locking in gains, a lot of major MA's overhead that could offer resistance could be a place to scale out, or if you just place a stop and hold, or a combination of the two where you lock in some gains, then place a swing stop on the remaining after having sold 1/2