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Yes BVN being down 50%

smaller golds

Posted by victorh on 15th of May 2020 at 03:12 pm

Yes BVN being down 50% since last year while gold has skyrocketed is about the worst under  performance  of any gold stock.  There are reasons for such a sharp decline as they eliminated their dividend, they reported a decline in gold production as Peru has extended their quarantine period which means no mining so any mining is limited to critical activities only.Also several brokerages downgraded the stock and Moodys downgraded BVN to B1 a negative outlook. In addition there has been talk that Peru may nationalize the mines. So as you can see fear in the equity markets has little to do with the bad performance of BVN . Sometimes fundamentals are very good reasons a stock can suddenly under perform.    

Another vote for the old

Posted by victorh on 11th of May 2020 at 10:48 am

Another vote for the old format instead of the video. While the video is interesting It's difficult to read the data on the tables on a computer screen. I like to scroll through charts to what interests me and its very difficult to do that in a video format and hard to know what sections are where.  I do appreciate you trying out new formats now and then as you do a great job with forecasting and giving us a overview of the bigger picture.  

That link you gave to Dr. Brownstein's protocol for beating the virus doesn't work, it goes to 404 errpr, page not found. 

Gold looking negative as people

Posted by victorh on 1st of May 2020 at 09:24 am

Gold looking negative as people are way too bullish on gold in general and on this site too.  The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (see below chart) it is exactly as bullish as it was bearish in mid-March at the very bottom after the biggest decline in stock market history. There are more bulls than they were in July of 2017 after a monster gold stock rally.

Yes you can access your account at TDameritrade,com

It was written by Sylvia Browne who died in 2013.  You can buy the Kindle version on Amazon. Dean Kootz never made that prediction. Sylvia Browne made many  predictions in her book, most of which were outlandish and never came true. She used the 2020 time frame in many of her predictions which did not come true. Below are two pages from her book, one page mentions blindness being cured by 2020, diabetes being cured  starting 2010 and no more invasive surgery done by 2015. The other page is where she wrote about the 2020 respiratory virus but considering the many other predictions she made that would happen around 2020 which haven't happened I would think she was just taking current problems with virus's and projecting them into the future. If the second part of her prediction saying the current virus will suddenly vanish that would be great, but I wouldn't count on it.  

Hayy Dent was extremely bullish in on January 27 in a YouTube video saying the market was going straight up as the smart money was buying and he didn't see a peak until May or June. Others like Matt and Steve on here even in January were warning us of all the negative divergences, etc.    

Interesting SPX chart showing how

Posted by victorh on 13th of Mar 2020 at 02:54 pm

Interesting SPX chart showing how long it took the market to get to the bottom after a decline of 20% or more in the SPX going back to 1957.  The datapoints could be useful when utilized with other homework+ gameplans. Dead cat bounces to be expected but it looks like we have at least several more months at best to an eventual bottom. 

Great chart, appreciate it. However too bad it only goes back to 1962 as it would be interesting to see how it performed in the 1929 crash which is most comparable to the current crash although even the 1929 crash wasn't as quick or bad as this one. Also none of those selling climaxes in the chart took place against this virus which is causing utter panic, a condition which didn't exist in prior selling climaxes.   

Miners

Posted by victorh on 12th of Mar 2020 at 06:33 pm
Title: Miners

This crash seems worse and

Posted by victorh on 12th of Mar 2020 at 03:53 pm

This crash seems worse and faster than the 1929 crash. Looking at GDXJ which continues to decline closing down 26% at 24.67.  On 8/13/2018 gold made a low of 1167. On the same date GDXJ closed at 27.49 much higher than it is now. Unreal and its not the only stock behaving like that. The only other time stocks declined so much and quickly was in 1929. Hopefully we get a relief rally soon maybe tonight.   

Gold stocks way out of

Posted by victorh on 12th of Mar 2020 at 03:31 pm

Gold stocks way out of whack, look at GDXJ down 22% today and making a new low  for the year.  GDXJ was last this low when Gold was hundreds of dollars cheaper. Ditto for most other gold stocks. Will gold have to fall a lot more to catch up with the gold stocks?  Looking at past market crashes in 1987 NEM was down over 50% in a few days. In the 08 crash most gold stocks were down 50% or more, back then that crash in the gold stocks took longer than just a couple days LOL

actually its 2819

Circuit breaker kicks in around

Posted by victorh on 8th of Mar 2020 at 07:31 pm

Circuit breaker kicks in around 2816 which is 5% from 4pm EST close. Anyone think it will get there?

Yes that would be true for most companies depending how much they rely on China for supplies which means the value of many companies will decline like we are seeing now. My point is the gold stocks would be particularity vulnerable as look what happened to AEM on just a tiny forward guidance decrease in production.   

Bad news for Gold stocks,

Posted by victorh on 21st of Feb 2020 at 09:45 pm

Bad news for Gold stocks, these companies like many others rely to varying degrees on parts and machinery from China. Miners in particular use all sorts of heavy machinery,  structural steel and all sorts of replacement parts mostly coming from China.  If the virus gets widespread I would  expect at least delays, possibly cancellations of projects. If the virus really takes off no one will be concerned about mining as personal survival will be the most important thing. Barring the virus becoming widespread I would expect miners to continue to operate but with the supply chains from China shut down most companies would have a drop in output, the exact amount depending on each company. 

Look at what happened to AEM this week, their forward guidance said to expect 1.8 million ounces mined this year versus expected 1.9 million and the stock got trashed down 15% for such a small reduction in forward guidance.  I can only imagine what would happen in the future to the stock price of miners if they start reducing their gold output. Under that scenario I could easily see the physical price of gold continue to advance while the stock price of many miners would decline. Also if we get a really bad stock market decline it could drag down prices of gold miners as in the 2008-2009 decline.  So considering everything it might be prudent to keep these points in the back of your mind. Hopefully the virus won't spread much here and in Canada, but even so China manufacturing is pretty much completely shut down now and for the foreseeable future so there are going to be all sorts of delays in shipments from China for all sorts of things.

Another factor to consider is that many miners have operations in third world countries such as Africa, South America, Indonesia, etc and many of these countries have poor health care systems and would be ill equipped to handle and contain the virus. If the virus became widespread in those areas many workers just wouldn't show up or be able to which would be another factor reducing output.  

The following article lists all the many personal and industrial products we rely on that come from China. 

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/coronavirus-products-from-china/ 

Silver doesn't close at 2:40pm It basically trades 23 hours a day with a break from 5:15pm to 6pm eastern time. The pit trading hours are from 8:25 am eastern to 1:25pm eastern. Although trading stops at 1:25pm in the pit electronic trading doesn’t stop until 5:15pm eastern. It starts up again at 6pm. Gold also had a spike at 2:40pm so don't think it was some plot by the algos on just silver. Lots of times in the PM markets you will get spikes up or down, could be running stops, etc. Sometimes it pays to fade the stops, sometimes not.   

This QQQ chart looks like

Posted by victorh on 6th of Jan 2020 at 07:36 pm

This QQQ chart looks like a diamond top to me, a bearish reversal pattern. Any thoughts? 

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p19515387874&a=292197578&r=1578334204519&cmd=print

Their online platform working fine

TD AMERITRADE down ??

Posted by victorh on 2nd of Jan 2020 at 10:58 am

Their online platform working fine for me, they always have long hold times for customer service  

Gold popped up $6 in

Posted by victorh on 30th of Dec 2019 at 09:23 pm

Gold popped up $6 in a matter of minutes right after 8pm eastern time tonight. Any ideas why? 

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