Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 02:14 pm
Loose economics conditions going in. This punt should be fuel to
the inflationary fire and give a nice boost to equities. That
said, TNX already did the standard trap move for Fed day and the
market usually has at least 1 trap up its sleeve, but often 3 traps
between now and tomorrows close.
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 01:11 pm
Thanks. Short term top call though...to be clear. Seems
likely to go higher although crude bulls have to worry about the
Biden Admin turning on the SPR bazooka again just like they did
right before the midterms. I think it's too early though and
they're keeping powder dry until the election is closer (vote
buying strategy = don't fire until you see the whites of their
eyes). This chart also suggests higher for the energy patch,
but keep in mind that Trump years were not great for XLE (increased
supply) and it ran with Biden (large constraints on
supply...although it increased on a nominal basis).
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 01:01 pm
Which path will the Fed choose? With Sanders and Warren
loudly demanding lower rates now and a looming election, I think
the single party dominated Fed likely surprises with a dovish gift
to the ultra wealthy.
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 12:56 pm
KRE - H&S look on the weekly....right shoulder could use
some work. Today and tomorrow are likely to tell us whether or not
we're completing wave C of a bear flag or going higher.
Twitter is mostly bullish. I don't understand why except for
the fact that being a bull has been the only thing that has
paid in many months now or maybe that the Fed and Treasury are
likely to protect very powerful investors in this sector at all
costs. CRE "expert" dude on CNBC yesterday said that we're
maybe in the top of the 1st when it comes to the CRE crisis and he
sees no viable ways to escape...especially if rate don't come down
a lot, and come down very soon.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 04:01 pm
Market rallying near all time bubbly highs while Fed is
meeting is ballsy. Market usually plays sick the day before a
potential stimulus event. Too much liquidity sloshing around -
impossible to keep a lid on it.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 03:46 pm
Nice high tight flag look on 130 with the cycle above just
waiting to confirm a wave 3 if broken through. It has already
proven that it can go higher with a strong dollar and rising rates
(dollar could get stronger and rates higher tomorrow if Fed doesn't
punt to the doves for political reasons, as seems to be the whisper
consensus). Whatever - it looks like it wants to go higher
despite the dollar and rates. Light volume, shallow pullback,
etc. What's not to like?
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 03:22 pm
CHIPS Act - big chunk of funding released tomorrow...much of it
to INTC. I'm glad they are using our grandchildren's money to prop
up the semiconductor industry - they are clearly struggling and
need the money more than we do. Big push now from Lobbyists
and Biden Admin officials for "CHIPS ACT Round 2" ....not
joking.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 03:12 pm
Financial conditions continue to loosen (lower is looser). I
think middle class savings drain via Gov deficit induced inflation
is part of the high level plan - it's navigating the narrative that
is tricky for the Fed Gov. They can't be completely honest
about it while we still have some semblance of a democracy
remaining. For people willing and able to look at the actual
numbers, the narrative of fighting inflation doesn't fit the
statistical reality.
I had a short debate with ChatGPT on the topic of deficit
spending and theft over the weekend. It's a biased AI but I
was able to get it to see my POV.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 01:42 pm
Crude (CL) - 1 hour looks like wave 5 but this daily looks great
in an apparent wave 3 after break of the cycle indicator to the
upside. The inflation party is on.
On second thought - maybe not. The MA ribbon suggests this is
a wave 5 and is likely to fail on the push above the cycle
indicator (I'm just counting color changes). The longer I look at
this chart, the more complex the wave count becomes. Haha. This one
seems kind of complex to me.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:53 pm
Fed Decision - consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to
throw the market a bone now to avoid looking political later on in
the year. I think that ship sailed in December, but whatever. Party
on with inflating assets and commodities if they do that.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:41 pm
Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to
explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing.
There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear,
the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not). If you want to avoid
the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current
wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to
count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon
indicator)
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:01 pm
Crude (CL1) - speaking of wave 5's, it looks like we've in one
on the 1 hour. MACD divergences confirming. Probably not a
great time to initiate longs in the energy patch.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:54 am
I look at cycles and the MA ribbon almost exclusively these
days. You've taught me most of what I know about them over
the years. The only thing I would say about this analysis is that
it helps to look for a wave count to determine the probability of
breakout when closing above the cycles like this. In this case, it
was an obvious wave 3 move and was safe to go long (IMO).
However, price often breaks above the cycle indicator in wave
5 moves also and those usually fail (the break above isn't as
common in wave 5 as 3, but it does happen often).
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:43 am
SMCI - I wonder if this getting smashed now was part of a larger
plan or just blind squirrels kind of luck? A lot of people
have been basing their bullish outlook on a broadening market and
IWM breaking out. If SMCI was still in this week, the IWM chart
would be broken and that thesis would have to be thrown out. Moving
it to the S&P before it corrected could be a good strategy for
both indexes. Especially since I don't think many people
cheering on IWM realize that most of this years performance is
linked to SMCI alone.
The move probably also gamed a lot of algorithms that look
for confirmation across indexes.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:37 am
I guess the bond auction went well. Looks like a stinker to me
(4.81 vs 4.695 previously) but not sure what the the print
was going into the auction. As long as the Gov can borrow without a
hitch, they can continue to inflate asset prices and we're all good
in equities. 20 year auction in 90 minutes.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 02:08 am
Good question. I didn't create the indicator, it's from the TV
community. I wouldn't take a trade only on divergence. Looking for
confluence of multiple indicators and also use as a warning a
warning not to trade against it. Also, the first Demark after
breaking through a cycle to the upside with authority is usually
the end of wave 3.
That divergence indicator also does work well on 1 min and below
time frames for scalps... kind of surprisingly.
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Loose economics conditions going in.
SPX - new all time highs
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 02:14 pm
Loose economics conditions going in. This punt should be fuel to the inflationary fire and give a nice boost to equities. That said, TNX already did the standard trap move for Fed day and the market usually has at least 1 trap up its sleeve, but often 3 traps between now and tomorrows close.
SPX - new all time
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 02:03 pm
SPX - new all time highs
Thanks. Short term top call
DiGi Great call on top of crude yesterday.
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 01:11 pm
Thanks. Short term top call though...to be clear. Seems likely to go higher although crude bulls have to worry about the Biden Admin turning on the SPR bazooka again just like they did right before the midterms. I think it's too early though and they're keeping powder dry until the election is closer (vote buying strategy = don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes). This chart also suggests higher for the energy patch, but keep in mind that Trump years were not great for XLE (increased supply) and it ran with Biden (large constraints on supply...although it increased on a nominal basis).
Haha. I don't know. Why?
Which path will the Fed choose? With Sanders and Warren ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 01:04 pm
Haha. I don't know. Why? You thinking about a reciprocal gift?
Which path will the Fed
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 01:01 pm
Which path will the Fed choose? With Sanders and Warren loudly demanding lower rates now and a looming election, I think the single party dominated Fed likely surprises with a dovish gift to the ultra wealthy.
KRE - H&S look on
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Mar 2024 at 12:56 pm
KRE - H&S look on the weekly....right shoulder could use some work. Today and tomorrow are likely to tell us whether or not we're completing wave C of a bear flag or going higher. Twitter is mostly bullish. I don't understand why except for the fact that being a bull has been the only thing that has paid in many months now or maybe that the Fed and Treasury are likely to protect very powerful investors in this sector at all costs. CRE "expert" dude on CNBC yesterday said that we're maybe in the top of the 1st when it comes to the CRE crisis and he sees no viable ways to escape...especially if rate don't come down a lot, and come down very soon.
Market rallying near all time
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 04:01 pm
Market rallying near all time bubbly highs while Fed is meeting is ballsy. Market usually plays sick the day before a potential stimulus event. Too much liquidity sloshing around - impossible to keep a lid on it.
Nice high tight flag look
Cycles GLD
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 03:46 pm
Nice high tight flag look on 130 with the cycle above just waiting to confirm a wave 3 if broken through. It has already proven that it can go higher with a strong dollar and rising rates (dollar could get stronger and rates higher tomorrow if Fed doesn't punt to the doves for political reasons, as seems to be the whisper consensus). Whatever - it looks like it wants to go higher despite the dollar and rates. Light volume, shallow pullback, etc. What's not to like?
CHIPS Act - big chunk
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 03:22 pm
CHIPS Act - big chunk of funding released tomorrow...much of it to INTC. I'm glad they are using our grandchildren's money to prop up the semiconductor industry - they are clearly struggling and need the money more than we do. Big push now from Lobbyists and Biden Admin officials for "CHIPS ACT Round 2" ....not joking.
Financial conditions continue to loosen
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 03:12 pm
Financial conditions continue to loosen (lower is looser). I think middle class savings drain via Gov deficit induced inflation is part of the high level plan - it's navigating the narrative that is tricky for the Fed Gov. They can't be completely honest about it while we still have some semblance of a democracy remaining. For people willing and able to look at the actual numbers, the narrative of fighting inflation doesn't fit the statistical reality.
I had a short debate with ChatGPT on the topic of deficit spending and theft over the weekend. It's a biased AI but I was able to get it to see my POV.
https://chat.openai.com/share/08aa907a-65d9-4862-957b-c667942660d6
Crude (CL) - 1 hour
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 01:42 pm
Crude (CL) - 1 hour looks like wave 5 but this daily looks great in an apparent wave 3 after break of the cycle indicator to the upside. The inflation party is on.
On second thought - maybe not. The MA ribbon suggests this is a wave 5 and is likely to fail on the push above the cycle indicator (I'm just counting color changes). The longer I look at this chart, the more complex the wave count becomes. Haha. This one seems kind of complex to me.
SPX - busted out of
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 01:06 pm
SPX - busted out of the coil discussed last night...but looking like a trap at the moment. It could hold but not looking great.
Fed Decision - consensus seems
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:53 pm
Fed Decision - consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to throw the market a bone now to avoid looking political later on in the year. I think that ship sailed in December, but whatever. Party on with inflating assets and commodities if they do that.
Cycles - just spotted a
MSTR
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:41 pm
Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing. There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear, the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not). If you want to avoid the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon indicator)
MDY 2h - Looks like
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:18 pm
MDY 2h - Looks like a completed ABC and a trigger after the last bar closed above the 9. Tight stop possible.
Crude (CL1) - speaking of
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:01 pm
Crude (CL1) - speaking of wave 5's, it looks like we've in one on the 1 hour. MACD divergences confirming. Probably not a great time to initiate longs in the energy patch.
I look at cycles and
MSTR
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:54 am
I look at cycles and the MA ribbon almost exclusively these days. You've taught me most of what I know about them over the years. The only thing I would say about this analysis is that it helps to look for a wave count to determine the probability of breakout when closing above the cycles like this. In this case, it was an obvious wave 3 move and was safe to go long (IMO). However, price often breaks above the cycle indicator in wave 5 moves also and those usually fail (the break above isn't as common in wave 5 as 3, but it does happen often).
SMCI - I wonder if
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:43 am
SMCI - I wonder if this getting smashed now was part of a larger plan or just blind squirrels kind of luck? A lot of people have been basing their bullish outlook on a broadening market and IWM breaking out. If SMCI was still in this week, the IWM chart would be broken and that thesis would have to be thrown out. Moving it to the S&P before it corrected could be a good strategy for both indexes. Especially since I don't think many people cheering on IWM realize that most of this years performance is linked to SMCI alone.
The move probably also gamed a lot of algorithms that look for confirmation across indexes.
I guess the bond auction
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:37 am
I guess the bond auction went well. Looks like a stinker to me (4.81 vs 4.695 previously) but not sure what the the print was going into the auction. As long as the Gov can borrow without a hitch, they can continue to inflate asset prices and we're all good in equities. 20 year auction in 90 minutes.
Good question. I didn't create
MACD Divergences indicator - this nailed the top today and ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 02:08 am
Good question. I didn't create the indicator, it's from the TV community. I wouldn't take a trade only on divergence. Looking for confluence of multiple indicators and also use as a warning a warning not to trade against it. Also, the first Demark after breaking through a cycle to the upside with authority is usually the end of wave 3.
That divergence indicator also does work well on 1 min and below time frames for scalps... kind of surprisingly.