Hello Everyone,

Weekly Recap:

As stated on Monday, the gaps on ES/NQ are quite rare and typically get filled within a short period (days).  On Tuesday,  SPX/ES moved above old highs into Fresh Supply and formed a doji candle (hesitation candle after 5 waves up)  followed by a strong reversal candle on Wednesday (producing an evening star pattern).  As stated on Wednesday, this shifted the onus back to the bulls after rejecting supply.   I also showed on Tuesday that the VIX moved into Daily Demand - another reason to be at least somewhat cautious while monitoring price action.

The QQQ had nearly a perfect backtest of it's 200 day MA from below which was soundly rejected. 

The MA ribbons shown on the KISS chart has moved into a bearish configuration during the strong decline that began in February.  The SPX  managed to bounce from underneath (oversold) but failed to reclaim as upside volume was muted last Monday and Tuesday (see QQQ daily charts).   

To be honest, I was looking for ES to test slightly higher 5850s which I posted days in advance and underlined as MAJOR RESISTANCE (prior breakdown support area) and ES topped out at 5837. 

Early on  Friday, I identified equal lows on ES 5650s as a valid target along with key zone 5625/20 as areas likely to get tested  and both zone were eventually reached along with the final zone 5603/11 late day as panic ensued with all the questions ahead of next week's liberation tariff date (April 2nd).   My initial downside targets were achieved on Friday with the JPM collar at  SPX 5565 the next major level below.  I really have no further insight  coming into Monday other than to expect a wild day (week) with the onus remaining on the bulls. 

Upcoming Week:

Late Friday, we saw ES move lower targeting a few levels discussed just above.  One key level that the bulls lost late Friday was 5620 which the bulls will need to reclaim for starters and build above with potential to retest 5711/20 (major zone that was broken last week).  Assuming the bulls can reclaim 5620 and build above, please note that the bulls will face several intermediate zones along the way so level to level in this uncertain backdrop. 

On  the downside ES 5565/50 zone is important along with the SPX 5565 (JPM collar) with next zone below around 5515.

Regardless, one should expect and be prepared for wild swings and thus position size accordingly if trading. 

Administrative Note:

I will be traveling and away from the trading community from April 3rd-April 7th. I will do my best to update levels as identified during my travels each night but will not be commenting intraday.  

Here's a link to Tonight's Newsletter.

Please take a moment to look at the trade ideas.