Discussion of Stock Market Scenario as based upon the SPX

1).  Bullish Scenario - the SPX completed a Major 4th Wave bottom on February 5th at 1044.50 and is now in the early stages on Major Wave 5 to the upside. (example shown below).

2).  Bullish Scenario - the SPX is in the process of a complex correction (ABC X ABC) for Major Wave 4 down.  Currently, the SPX would be in the "X" wave up to be followed by another ABC down. This would be produce a retest of the 1044.50 low over time which would complete the correction and be followed by Major Wave 5 to the the upside as shown above.  It's also possible that some other complex correction unfolds like a triangle so until new highs are made with must be open to other possibilities.

3. Bearish Scenario - the SPX completed an impulse down (5 wave down) on February 5th at 1044.50 and is currently correcting the prior impulsive decline with a 3 wave advance (example below). 

If true, this should be followed by another strong impulsive wave to the downside (Wave 3 down).  A reasonable target for Wave 3 down would be 1.618 times the length of Wave 1 down.

4).  Bearish Scenario - the SPX completed it's first impulse (5 waves down) on January 29th at 1071.59.  Since then, it has been moving up in an irregular (or expanding) flat pattern.  This consists of 3 waves up to 1104.73 followed by 3 waves down to 1144.50 and then 5 waves up to complete a 3-3-5 Flat.  Again, this would represent the larger Wave 2 up and be followed by another strong impulse (Wave 3 down) once complete.

In summary, we will simply have to see the nature and extent of the next pullback to determine which of these scenarios may be unfolding.  For the bearish counts to play out, the market must turn down shortly and IMPULSE down.  The SPX has already retraced 64% of the prior move down which is pushing the upper ranges of a "normal retracement."  (Please note that Wave 2's can retrace up to 99% but this is certainly not normal).  Again, we need to be patient allow the necessary time and structure to complete before making too many predictions.  We await the market's decision - will it be Bull or Bear?