Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are
fearful? Warren's famous quote -- how true is it? If
looking at the AAII sentiment data, it is dead wrong. The
best times to be fully margined long this market in the last two
years were when the AAII sentiment was ridiculously bullish.
This bull parade lasted 6 weeks on average and the most
bullish sentiment came near the bottom and at the start of bull
runs -- not the top as many believe. What about tops -- what
happens there? Actually, the data shows that investors are
actually reigning it in and really aren't that bullish at all.
In fact, before August's big plunge, the data was skewed
slightly bearish. I have seen people lately saying that we
are nowhere near a top because people are getting less bullish.
I believe this to be an incorrect assessment of the sentiment
data. I don't claim to know where/when the top is, but if you
are waiting for the data to suddenly swing extreme to the bullish
side at the top, this would actually be unprecedented market
behavior from what I see.
I looked back further on the sentiment front. If you check
out April - June 2003 you will find ridiculously bullish sentiment
for 8 weeks -- probably the highest on record (coming out of the
bottom of the bear market). At the top (October 2007),
the sentiment was only slightly bullish.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Be fearful when others are greedy? Warren's famous quote -- how true is it?
Posted by kalinm on 31st of Mar 2012 at 04:33 pm
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful? Warren's famous quote -- how true is it? If looking at the AAII sentiment data, it is dead wrong. The best times to be fully margined long this market in the last two years were when the AAII sentiment was ridiculously bullish. This bull parade lasted 6 weeks on average and the most bullish sentiment came near the bottom and at the start of bull runs -- not the top as many believe. What about tops -- what happens there? Actually, the data shows that investors are actually reigning it in and really aren't that bullish at all. In fact, before August's big plunge, the data was skewed slightly bearish. I have seen people lately saying that we are nowhere near a top because people are getting less bullish. I believe this to be an incorrect assessment of the sentiment data. I don't claim to know where/when the top is, but if you are waiting for the data to suddenly swing extreme to the bullish side at the top, this would actually be unprecedented market behavior from what I see.
Great stuff, thanks, I would
Posted by steveo on 27th of Apr 2012 at 05:16 am
Great stuff, thanks, I would like to put on my blog because this type of warning is so important. Looks like a classic lie, debunked.
Thanks Kalinm
Posted by sschulman on 1st of Apr 2012 at 11:01 am
Thanks Kalinm. Food for thought.
More on sentiment in bull runs
Posted by kalinm on 31st of Mar 2012 at 04:43 pm
I looked back further on the sentiment front. If you check out April - June 2003 you will find ridiculously bullish sentiment for 8 weeks -- probably the highest on record (coming out of the bottom of the bear market). At the top (October 2007), the sentiment was only slightly bullish.