Here's two SPX weekly charts, the first one is current, while
the second one is from about the same time frame, Fall, 2004.
On Friday I told Steve that the regular 14/3 stochastics on the
weekly chart were pointing strong up over 50%, thus most likely
pointing to another up move. The MACD is at zero and trying
to turn up and the 60 period stochastics has held above 50% the
whole time, which as you will see has been a very important level
since 2000. Resistance is 1131.
The 2004 weekly chart also sports a similar MACD action just
below zero and the 60 period stochastics held above 50% on 9 month
consolidation in 2004.
The 3rd chart is the weekly SPX chart going back to 2000, as you
can see, when the Secular bear market began in 2000, the 50% level
on the 60 period stochastics has been a 'key' definer of cyclical
bull/bear markets within the larger secular bear market.
Remember that the market moves in cycles, let's look at
them:
Secular Bear market from 1905 - 1920, about 15 years in
time. (contained cyclical bull and bear markets lasting
2 - 3 years)
Secular Bull Market from 1920 - 1929, about 9 years (the
shortest secular market)
Secular Bear Market from 1929 - 1948, about 19
years, (contained cyclical bull and bear markets lasting
2 - 3 years)
Secular Bull Market from 1948 - 1966, about 18 years
long.
Secular Bear from 1966 - 1982, about 16 years (contained
cyclical bull and bear markets lasting 2 - 3 years)
Secular Bull from 1982 - 2000, 18 years.
Currently we are in another Secular Bear market from 2000 - ??
probably about 2016 - 18 if it ends up being as long as
it's predecessors. The move from Mar 09 is a cyclical
bull market, it will either continue here for another 6 months to a
year or not. This should be answered this fall. However I think the
longer term secular bear market won't be complete until the mid
teens.
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SPX weekly charts, current, 2004, and Big Picture Cycles, etc
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2010 at 01:36 am
Here's two SPX weekly charts, the first one is current, while the second one is from about the same time frame, Fall, 2004.
On Friday I told Steve that the regular 14/3 stochastics on the weekly chart were pointing strong up over 50%, thus most likely pointing to another up move. The MACD is at zero and trying to turn up and the 60 period stochastics has held above 50% the whole time, which as you will see has been a very important level since 2000. Resistance is 1131.
The 2004 weekly chart also sports a similar MACD action just below zero and the 60 period stochastics held above 50% on 9 month consolidation in 2004.
The 3rd chart is the weekly SPX chart going back to 2000, as you can see, when the Secular bear market began in 2000, the 50% level on the 60 period stochastics has been a 'key' definer of cyclical bull/bear markets within the larger secular bear market. Remember that the market moves in cycles, let's look at them:
Secular Bear market from 1905 - 1920, about 15 years in time. (contained cyclical bull and bear markets lasting 2 - 3 years)
Secular Bull Market from 1920 - 1929, about 9 years (the shortest secular market)
Secular Bear Market from 1929 - 1948, about 19 years, (contained cyclical bull and bear markets lasting 2 - 3 years)
Secular Bull Market from 1948 - 1966, about 18 years long.
Secular Bear from 1966 - 1982, about 16 years (contained cyclical bull and bear markets lasting 2 - 3 years)
Secular Bull from 1982 - 2000, 18 years.
Currently we are in another Secular Bear market from 2000 - ?? probably about 2016 - 18 if it ends up being as long as it's predecessors. The move from Mar 09 is a cyclical bull market, it will either continue here for another 6 months to a year or not. This should be answered this fall. However I think the longer term secular bear market won't be complete until the mid teens.